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U.S. customers face sharp worth will increase on important meals objects like espresso and orange juice ought to the Trump administration proceed with its plan to levy a 50 % tariff on all imports from Brazil, merchants and consultants say.
President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on Wednesday, which included elevating the responsibility on Brazilian imports from 10 % to 50 %, efficient from August 1, regardless of the U.S. having a $7.4 billion commerce surplus with Brazil, in accordance with U.S. Census Bureau knowledge.
When it comes to agricultural commodities, Brazil produces almost half the world’s arabica espresso and is by far the world’s largest orange juice producer, accounting for 80 % of worldwide exports, trade figures reveal.
Brazil can be the world’s high sugar producer, however doesn’t ship vital volumes to the U.S.
“With (U.S. sugar) consumption at 11.185 million tons, a 50 % enhance on 312,000 tons of (Brazil) sugar shouldn’t have a big influence. The larger influence will likely be in espresso and orange juice. I’m pondering Acai berries as nicely,” mentioned sugar analyst Michael McDougall, declaring that Trump might but row again on his plan.
The overwhelming majority of U.S. Acai imports come from Brazil, the world’s largest producer, in accordance with a report by Grand View Analysis.
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U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick mentioned final month throughout a Congress listening to that some pure assets that aren’t out there within the U.S., corresponding to tropical fruits and spices, may very well be exempt from tariffs, relying on negotiations with the international locations producing and exporting them.
“I do not assume it could be economically possible to promote Brazilian espresso to the U.S. with the 50 % tariff. Let’s have a look at how this may evolve, however it could be very sophisticated,” mentioned the Brazil head of a serious international commodities dealer.
Round a 3rd of the espresso consumed within the U.S., the world’s largest drinker of the beverage, comes from Brazil, which has in recent times been delivery about eight million 60 kg luggage a 12 months there, in accordance with trade teams.
Greater than half of the orange juice bought within the U.S. comes from Brazil, in the meantime.
The U.S. has grow to be extra dependant on orange juice imports in recent times as a consequence of a pointy decline in home manufacturing, significantly in Florida, because of the ‘citrus greening’ crop illness, hurricanes and spells of freezing temperatures.
A report issued by the U.S. Division of Agriculture earlier this 12 months forecast the U.S. orange harvest would hit an 88-year low within the 2024/25 season whereas manufacturing of orange juice would stoop to a document low.
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Brazil additionally exports a modest quantity of beef to the U.S., and the tariff has been welcomed by U.S. cattle producers.
“We totally assist this tariff on Brazil. Brazil’s exports (have) contributed to the shrinking of our U.S. cattle trade. We have to rebuild and cut back our nation’s dependency on imported meals. This can be a step in the fitting path,” mentioned R-CALF USA.
When it comes to vitality, Brazil is the world’s second-largest producer of the cane or corn-based biofuel ethanol.
The South American nation produced some 35 billion litres of ethanol in 2024, however exported lower than 6 %, of which just some 300 million litres went to U.S., in accordance with a report from BTG Pactual.
Power main Shell is uncovered to Brazil’s biofuel market by way of Raizen, a three way partnership between itself and Brazilian conglomerate Cosan, whereas BP is uncovered because it now has full possession of Brazilian sugar and ethanol producer BP Bunge Bioenergia.
In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva setting out his tariff plan, Trump criticised what he noticed as Brazil’s assaults on free elections, social media platforms and digital commerce actions of U.S. firms.
