President Donald Trump’s tariff threats may elevate the value of uranium used to gasoline US nuclear reactors, which may have ripple results on a tenuous nuclear renaissance spurred by the expansion of energy-hungry knowledge facilities.
The US will get greater than 1 / 4 of its uranium from Canada, greater than from some other nation. The Trump administration imposed new tariffs on uranium and different items on Canada this week, which he quickly paused after a inventory market drop and sell-off.
It may play into efforts to construct up a home uranium provide
It’s too quickly to know what the precise influence can be on the US’s nuclear vitality trade if tariffs transfer ahead. It may play into efforts to construct up a home uranium provide, which has gotten bipartisan assist and curiosity from main tech firms. However within the close to time period, the US nonetheless depends on its northern neighbor to maintain reactors operating.
Trump proposed a ten p.c tariff on vitality merchandise from Canada, however he introduced yesterday that it could be paused till at the very least April 2nd. Canada-based Cameco, one of many world’s largest uranium producers, warned that the tariffs would inevitably result in increased costs.
“It’s sort of Econ 101 to determine what the influence of tariffs are on this scenario,” Cameco CFO Grant Isaac stated in a February twentieth earnings name. A ten p.c tariff would result in a ten p.c rise in uranium costs, Isaac stated, whether or not that’s from Canada or elsewhere. “Historical past tells us non-tariff international locations will merely enhance their provide costs to simply below 10 p.c,” he stated. When reached for remark this week, a spokesperson for Cameco stated Isaac’s feedback on the decision nonetheless maintain.
The Nuclear Power Institute, a commerce affiliation based mostly in Washington, DC, was coy when requested about how the tariffs would possibly have an effect on the US nuclear vitality trade. “We agree in precept that actions must be taken to unleash America’s vitality dominance and shield our nationwide safety, whereas additionally creating a sturdy economic system that spurs job creation. Nonetheless, these measures may hinder development and innovation within the vitality sector and the nations’ means to attain vitality dominance,” Doug True, senior vice chairman of technical and regulatory companies and chief nuclear officer, stated in an emailed assertion.
Uranium costs have risen dramatically in recent times, with rising curiosity in nuclear vitality — together with from Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta in search of out nuclear vitality to energy new AI knowledge facilities. Greater uranium costs incentivized the resurgence of uranium mining within the US, with the primary mine to open in practically a decade beginning up close to the Grand Canyon final yr. The Russia-Ukraine struggle is one other issue, with the Biden administration banning uranium imports from Russia, one other main provider, final yr.
“Why are we depending on international nations when the US has the aptitude, has the sources, has the expertise to really develop into vitality impartial, particularly in nuclear?” says Jay Yu, president of LIS Applied sciences, a US-based laser uranium enrichment firm.
However even when the US builds up its home provide chain, it’s nonetheless constrained by geography. The US solely holds about 1 p.c of the world’s uranium reserves, whereas Canada holds about 10 instances as a lot. “Tariffs would threaten uranium provide at a time when the US is in search of to develop its nuclear dominance,” Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Important Minerals Safety Program on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research, wrote in a late January evaluation.
The emergence of DeepSeek’s AI fashions in China, which may ostensibly use a lot much less vitality than US rivals, has additionally made the way forward for knowledge heart vitality use and nuclear vitality extra unsure.
Nuclear vitality remains to be a sensitive topic that’s created some unusual bedfellows. Not like coal and gasoline energy crops, nuclear reactors don’t generate greenhouse gasoline emissions. That’s put it on the desk as a substitute for fossil fuels that some local weather hawks champion. However somebody has to mine the uranium for these nuclear reactors, which some environmental teams and Indigenous activists are combating fervently. The US has a historical past of uranium mines contaminating water sources on Navajo Nation land.
Trump, an enormous fan of the fossil gasoline trade that dumped tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} into his marketing campaign, has basically tried to eradicate motion on the local weather disaster within the US. He may carve out exceptions for nuclear vitality applied sciences which have garnered assist from extractive industries and Massive Tech. He tapped Chris Wright to guide the Power Division; Wright was beforehand the CEO of a serious oil and gasoline service supplier and sat on the board of administrators for a corporation creating superior nuclear reactors with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
Uranium sits on the nexus of many various energy performs within the US, and tariffs may elevate the stakes for everybody with one thing to lose or achieve.
